US-Cuba tensions rise over reported drone purchases and new sanctions

Tensions between Washington and Havana have intensified following reports that Cuba may have obtained more than 300 military drones from Russia and Iran, with US intelligence sources reportedly concerned the aircraft could threaten American interests, including Guantanamo Bay.

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel has warned that any American military move against the island would result in “a bloodbath with incalculable consequences”. The warning comes as relations between the two countries grow increasingly hostile under renewed US pressure on Cuba.

Independent defence analyst Dr Sanjay Badri-Maharaj said Cuba’s tough language should not be mistaken for strong military capacity. He said the island’s armed forces are constrained by ageing equipment, years of economic strain and difficulty maintaining older weapons systems.

Badri-Maharaj said the United States has the ability to cause major destruction from the air, but that a full invasion would require a substantial number of troops on the ground. In his assessment, Cuba’s military would not be able to mount the type of resistance associated with earlier decades.

He also warned that the wider Caribbean could face serious consequences if the confrontation worsens. A breakdown in Cuba, he said, could trigger a major movement of refugees from the island and create the risk of military-grade weapons spreading into criminal networks across the region.

The strain is also unfolding as reports suggest the Trump administration may pursue criminal charges against former Cuban leader Raul Castro. At the same time, Cuba is grappling with severe fuel shortages, electricity blackouts and a deepening economic crisis.

Badri-Maharaj said the combination of sanctions, reduced oil supplies from Venezuela and internal economic weakness has left Havana with limited leverage. He argued that Cuba is in a vulnerable position as pressure from the United States continues to build.