Francis Wade | The Productivity Numbers Haunting Every Government Leader

As a leader in the Jamaican government, you may be confronted by the economic situation we find ourselves in. While some colleagues are busy extracting personal gains when they can, you actually want to serve and contribute. How can you do so against the odds?

Recently, Prime Minister Andrew Holness laid out the bare facts. Jamaica's productivity at US$9/hour is only slightly better than that of Haiti. Measured by GDP divided by total hours worked, we lag other countries by multiples: Barbadians are more than twice as productive. Panamanians are five times as productive.

Consequently, simply relocating a worker in a hotel from our island to another country makes her two or more times as productive.

These are sobering numbers. But as the Prime Minister said, apparently, they aren't bad enough yet to spur action. Speaking to the St Ann Chamber of Commerce, he singled out crime as a stubborn contributor to low GDP growth — a problem he argued is fostered by a widespread victim mentality.

However, he did not address these issues from his de facto role as Strategist-in-Chief. If you were to take the job, you would confront the fact that the Government of Jamaica is a major contributor to low productivity.

The GOJ's Unique Role

The data shows that the government makes a direct contribution of 15–17 per cent to GDP, making it the largest single player, by far. But it also has an outsized effect on the other 83 per cent of GDP via four levers: macroeconomic stability, institutional quality, infrastructure and public goods, and public signals and expectations.

Thanks to our leaders in both parties, since 2013 we have made tremendous, world-leading gains on the first lever. Some countries are studying Jamaica's turnaround in macroeconomic stability. Unfortunately, it hasn't translated into GDP growth.

I'm not an economist, but as a business-person and strategy consultant, I can still recognise the brutal fundamentals.

1. There are No Short-term Solutions Available.

This is not pessimism. Regardless of what the current government does, it's unlikely to reach 2030 with any significant improvements. For example, our policies since the 1960s have produced a literacy rate at least five points below those of the countries mentioned.

This is a stubborn contributor to our lack of productivity. But literacy alone doesn't close the gap.

1. Long-Term Solutions Are Possible

However, there are some countries around the world that have successfully pursued patient, long-term strategies. Singapore stands out because they were in a similar state to Jamaica in the 1960s.

So does Norway. As Dr. Damien King argued in his article imploring leaders to forgo a fossil-fuel bonanza, Norway had the patience to avoid the failures of an oil-based boom, unlike Nigeria and many others. Their long-term thinking worked.

With populations of around 6 million, they are roughly twice our size, proving that small nations can plan with patience.

1. Our Attempt to Be Patient Didn't Work

Almost no-one in government or opposition is still calling for a "place of choice to live, work, raise families and do business" — the tagline of Vision 2030.

Instead, we are ignoring both the successes and failures of the project.

This prevents us from fixing the flaws in its design. Now, we remain both reluctant and late to launch a new and improved effort. A "Vision 2050 Jamaica" should feature a better National Development Plan (NDP).

1. A New NDP Requires Cross-Party Agreement

Part of the genius of an NDP is that it ring-fences a country's biggest measurable commitments. They become insulated from political interference, as has our commitment to an independent Electoral Commission of Jamaica (ECJ).

Critically, the aspirations embedded in an NDP are designed to span electoral cycles. More specific than our anthem or pledge, they are meant to impact daily life, especially in the civil service. They are perfectly suited for the highest-stakes commitments: GDP growth, productivity and crime reduction.

Unfortunately, the friction between our major political parties has produced a leadership vacuum on the challenges that matter most.

Jamaica — The Big Loser?

Governments in Trinidad and Tobago have tried to make progress using single-party NDPs that lack bi-partisan support. They too have failed to make progress on the biggest issues.

As a leader in the public sector who cares about the big picture, consider the brutal fundamentals laid out above. Since they are unavoidable, why not play a part in calling for a new NDP?

But even if you aren't loud about it, embrace the calculus that only patient, long-horizon thinking produces its first results immediately — in the minds of those willing to embrace it. Do the organisational visioning needed to take us far past 2030.

Only a patient Jamaica can outrun its own history.

Francis Wade is the author of Perfect Time-Based Productivity, a keynote speaker and a management consultant. To search his prior columns on productivity, strategy, engagement and business processes, send email to [email protected].