Speaking Notes: Review of Economic Performance, April–June 2025

1 The Planning Ins titute of Jamaica’s Review of Economic Performance, April – June 20 2 5 Media Brief August 19 , 20 2 5 1. Overview – Current Economic Context Before I provide the details on economic performance, let me remind you of the purpose of these quarterly economic estimates provided by the PIOJ. The PIOJ presents preliminary estimates on economic performance for each quarter. This is based on early inf ormation provided by major data providers. Th e provision of preliminary estimate s is consistent with trends in modern economies globally, where it is the common practice to release a 1st, 2nd and even a 3rd preliminary estimate, before the final figures are provided . The PIOJ releases the preliminary growth estimate approximately six week s following the end of the quarter being reviewed , while STATIN releases the official figures at the end of the 3rd month following the end of the quarter. Various stakeholders, including our International Development Partners, the Private Sector, as we ll as the Government, use the preliminary data to inform critical planning and policy - related decisions .

2 This Quarter’s report , marks the first since the release of the revised GDP format by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), in accordance wit h t he 2008 System of National Accounting (SNA) . The update became effective as at the January – March 2025 quarter and currently includes revisions going back to 2015. The a doption of the 2008 SNA replaces the previously used 1993 SNA. This update brings Jamaica’s economic reporting in line with international best practices and enhances the country’s ability to generate timely and relevant data for policy and development planning. As part of the revision, STATIN has also implemented the Jamaica Indu strial Classification 2016 (JIC 2016) and rebased the country’s constant price GDP estimates to the year 2015, replacing the previous 2007 base year. These methodological enhancements — supported by updated classifications, new data sources, and improved me asures of household consumption and informal sector activity — resulted in an average increase of 7.8 % in GDP levels between 2015 and 2023. It should be noted that t he revision s undertaken by STATIN were independently reviewed and accepted by key development partners , reinforcing the credibility of these updates . Some of the implications from the revisions are: 1. Changes in the National Accounts classification of industries , for example a. t he Electricity & Water Supply industry , is now renamed Electricity, Water Supply & Waste Management i ndustry . Waste Management was previously captured in the Other Services industry ; b. the Transport, Storage & Communication i ndustry is now the Transport & Storage i ndustry . To capture Telec ommunication activities, a new indu stry named ‘Information & Communication’ has been added. c. t he Producers of Government Services industry is now renamed Public Administration & Defence i ndustry ;

3 d. t he Hotels & Restauran ts i ndustry is now renamed the Accommodation & Food Service Activities Industry ; e. t he Other Services industry is now renamed Education, Health & Other Services Industry . 2. T he increase in nominal GDP level s and i t s impact on key economic variables, for example the debt to GDP ratio . The debt to GDP ratio for FY 2024/2025 was previously estimated at 67.3 % . T he more accurate accounting for output levels, has resulted in a higher GDP level for the fiscal year , and as such the debt to GDP ratio is now 62.4% . This brings the country closer to the mandated FY2027/28 debt to GDP target of 60.0% . Today , we are reporting that the Jamaican economy re cord ed an estimated growth of 1. 4 % compared with the corresponding quarter, April to June 20 2 4 . The out - t urn for the review quarter largely reflected continued growth in most industries. Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing and the Accommodation & Food Service Activities industries — two industries that were hardest hit by the weather - related disruptions of 2024 — were key drivers of this positive performance. Both industries have ente red into a new growth phase with current output levels surpassing their pre - Hurricane Beryl output levels. Among the factors influencing the performance during the review quarter were : 1. Growth in the economies of Jamaica’s major trading partners, which supported external demand. 2. Increased domestic demand for goods and services supported by: a. A s trengthening in both consumer and business confidence levels pushed by a positive perception of current economic conditions as we ll as optimism surrounding business prospects; and b. a high er level of employment facilitated by an increase in the Employed Labour Force by 24,200 .

4 2. Real Sector Developments D evelopments in the Goods Producing Industry The Goods Producing Industry grew by an estimated 3 . 8 % with improved performance s recorded for three of the four industries, namely Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing; Manufacturing and Construction . T he Mining & Quarrying industry was estimated to have recorded a contraction due to weakened demand and technical challenges . Agriculture , Forestry & Fishing Real Value Added for the Agriculture industry grew by an estimated 9.8 % . This out - turn primarily reflected the impact of more favourable weather condition s , which contributed to an increase in output per hectare and a n 11.1 % expansion in the area of domestic crops reaped . Based on current output levels the industry has fully recovered from the shock of Hurricane Beryl and is now in a new growth phase. The performance of the industry stemmed from : 1. a 14.1 % growth in the output of Other Agricultural Crops . Increased production was recorded in all nine crop groups, led by Cereals, up 27.8%, Potatoes, up 22.9%; Vegetables, up 18.9%; Condiments, up 18.5%; Yams, up 11.1%; and Legumes, up 7.4% ; 2. Growth of 2.7 % in Traditional Export Crops which largely reflect ed higher production of Coffee , up 8.6 %; and Banana, up 4.0 %. These increases were sufficient to outweigh estimated decline s in cocoa and sugar cane production ; 3. A 3.6% expansion in Post Harvest Activities, reflecting increased availability of coffee berries for roasting ; and 4. A 3.1% increase in Animal Farming , which was attributed to a n increase in poultry meat production of 6.6% . This was sufficient to outweigh a 25.5 % decline in egg production.

5 Mining & Quarrying Real Value Added for the Mining & Quarrying industry de creased by 3.5 % , reflecting declines in both alumina and crude bauxite production . Specifically: • Alumina production , the heavier weighted component, contracted by 5.5 % . Lower p roduction was the result of re duced demand as well as technical challenges associated with equipment failure at one plant . T he alumina capacity utilization rate was 39.5 %, down 2.3 percentage points compared with t he corresponding quarter of 202 4 . • Crude Bauxite production , down 1.5 % , reflecting reduced demand from a major overseas purchaser. The bauxite capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 35. 4 %. and • Reduced production of most quarrying material surveyed. The largest declines were registered for Limestone, Marl & Fill, Gypsum and Pozzolan . Manufactur ing Real Value Added for the Manufacturing industry was estimated to have grown by 1. 4 % . Increased output was estimated for both the Other Manufacturing and the Food, Beverages & Tobacco sub - industries. Within the Food, Beverages & Tobacco sub - industry , higher production was pushed by Poultry Meat, up 5.4% and Dairy Products, up 24.6 % . These were sufficient to outweigh the decline in Beverage production reflected in lower output of Beer & Stout, down 19.8 %; and Rum & Alcohol , down 4.7 %. For the Other Manufacturing sub - industry, the estimated increase in output was mainly due to :

6 • Petroleum Products – reflecting higher production of Turbo Fuel, up 118.5 %; Automotive Diesel Oil (ADO), up 81.9%; Fuel Oil, up 54.6%; and Asphalt, up 84.7% Further growth in this sub - industry was stymied by an estimated contraction in the N on - metallic minerals component, reflecting lower production of Cement, down 38.2% and Clinker, down 66.6% . The decline in cement and clinker production was attributed to the closure of the plant to facilitate an expansion project . Construction An estimated growth of 1.6 % per cent in Real Value Added was recorded for the Construction industry , reflecting a n upturn in both the Building Construction and Other Construction component s . Preliminary data on sales of Co nstruction inputs indicate a 0.8 % increase in real terms while cement supply to the market expanded by 8.5% . The Building Construction component is estimated to have grown , reflecting a 745.9% increase in housing starts by the NHT. The performance was driven by 2 , 077 new starts at the Longville Park housing scheme. Additionally, hi gher work - in - progress was supported by the strong increase in housing starts reported in the p revious quarter . The growth in the Other Construction component was due to higher capital expenditure on civil engineering activities . Among the entities recording increased expenditure was the Port Authority of Jamaica (PAJ), up 743.7% to $1.2 billion , largely reflecting rehabilitation works on docks and berths at the Ocho Rios pier

7 Developments in the Services Industry The Services Industry was estimated to have grown by 0. 5 % , reflecting higher Real Value A dded for all industries with the exception of Electricity, Water and Waste Management and Real Estate & Business Activities , which declined . Electricity , Water Supply & Waste Management The Electricity , Water Supply & Waste Management industry recorded a contraction of 2.7% in R eal V alue A dded, reflecting lower electricity consumption, which offset an increase in water consumption . Electricity consumption de creased by 4. 7 % reflecting low er consumption for f ive of six categories: ▪ Residential, down 3.5 %, ▪ General Service (small businesses using less than 25 kilovolt ampere ( kVa), down 3.9 % ▪ Power Service (large businesses using more than 25 kVa but less than 500 kVa), down 3.5 % ▪ Large Power ( b usinesses using more than 500kVa), down 12.5 %, and ▪ Largest Power (single locations with a minimum peak demand of 2000 kVa), down 5.9 % However, the Street Lighting + Traffic Signals increased by 1.2 % . Kingston & St Andrew continued to account for the largest share of electricity sales at 33.8 %, followed by St Catherine at 17.1 % and St James, 11.1% . With respect to Water consumption , there was an increase of 1.7% due to higher consumption of 0.7% in the Eastern division and 3.7% in the Western division.

8 Transport & Storage Real V alue A dded for the Transport & Storage industry was estimated to have grown by 1.3 % due to an increase in both component s . The Transport component was impacted by increase s in total air passenger movements ( up 0.8 %) and the movement in the volume of maritime cargo ( up 3.5 %) . The industry ’ s performance was also supported by an increase in the land transport sub - component reflected in the higher number of buses dispatched by the JUTC . The a verage number of buses dispatched, increased by 28.1 % to 187 per month . This resulted in increases of: • 19.1 % to 4. 9 million in the number of Revenue Passenger trip s ; and • 1.2 % to $ 26.0 million in the R evenue from Charter Trips . The Storage component was estimated to have grown consistent with the increase in the volume of Maritime Cargo handled at the major ports . WRTRIM Real Value Added in the Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles & Installation of Machinery & Equipment (WRTRIM) industry is estimated to have grown by 0 .3 % pushed by a real increase of 4.9 % in total gross sales. Higher sales were recorded for s even of the eight categories, including: ▪ Motor Vehicle, Auto Repairs & Accessories, up 13.1% ▪ Other Wholesale & Retail Sales of Goods & Services, up 10.4% ▪ Textiles, Clothing, Shoes & Jewellery, up 5.2% ▪ Retail Sale of Pharmaceuticals, Medical Goods and Cosmetics, up 3.9% .

9 Financial & Insurance Activities Real Value A dded for the Financ ial & Insurance Activities industry was estimated to have grown by 1.0 % during the review quarter. The performance reflected the impact of : ▪ an increase in net interest income due to a rise in the stock of loans and advances at deposit - taking institutions, and ▪ higher income from fees and commission, supported by increased utilization of financial services . Accommodation & Food Service Activities Real Value Added for the Accommodation & Food Service Activities industry grew by an estimated 2. 5 % , driven by a rise in stop - over arrivals . Preliminary data on Stopover arrivals for the review quarter stood at 743,720 visitors , an increase of 1.6 %, compared with the corresponding quarter of 202 4 . Preliminary visitor expenditure for April – May 2025 increased by 7.6% to US$697.0 million, compared with the corresponding period of 2024 . Employment Update…. Regarding the Employment Update, t he highlights for April 202 5 are as follows : • The unemployment rate was 3.3 % , with the Male unemployment rate at 2.5 % and the Female unemployment rate at 4.3 % • The y outh un employment rate was 10.1 % , with Male youth unemployment rate at 8.1 % and Female youth unemployment rate at 12.6 % • The employed labour force stood at 1, 444,500 as at April 202 5 . Male s accounted for 53. 3 % of the employed labo u r force with Female s a ccounting for 46.7 % • The unemployed labour force was 50,000 persons as at April 202 5 .

10 GDP Performance: January – June, 202 5 For the first six months of 202 5 , real GDP is estimated to have grown by 1. 2 %. The Goods - Producing Industry grew by 2.9 % while the Services Industry grew by 0.7 % . The industries which were estimated to have recorded the largest increases during the first half of the year , were Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing , up 6.4 % ; Information & Communication, up 3.6%; Accommodation & Food Service Activities, up 1.8%; and Manufacturing, up 1. 6 %. 3. Short Term Economic Outlook: July – September 20 2 5 & FY20 2 5 / 2 6 Let me now turn to the short - term economic outlook. Short - term p rospects for the overall economy are positive , largely associated with the continuation of the recovery momentum as all industries are projected to record growth. This performance will largely be supported by: 1. The recovery from the low production base during the corresponding quarter of 2024 when most industr ies were adversely im pacted by H urricane Beryl. In p articular, agriculture production continues to benefit from the post - hurricane support to the industry which has resulted in record levels of production for several crop groups (new growth phase). This augurs well for the related WRTRIM industry. 2. It is anticipated that the Electricity, Water and Waste Management Industry will record strong growth as this industry was one of the most affected during Hurricane Beryl in the corresponding quarter of 2024. 3. Preliminary data on t he Mining & Quarrying industry for July 2025 showed that alumina production increased by 18.3 % . The performance was largely due to the recovery as the industry was adversely affected by Hurricane Beryl, w hich dam a ge d the Port at Rocky Point causing a tempor ary ha lt to production and export activities.

11 4. S trengthening of domestic demand associated with higher levels of employment; improved business and consumer confidence; and the traditional bump in spending during periods o f intense election campaigning , and 5. Ongoing retooling and capacity expansion in the Manufacturing and Accommodation & Food Service Activities industries. Cement production is expected to record strong growth consequent on the completion of plant expansion works, while the accommodation sector will benefit from the increased room stock and severa l summer events which spurred visitor arrivals to the island. Preliminary data on airport arrivals for July 2025 indicate a 16.5% increase in visitors. Against this background, f or July – September 202 5 , i t is anticipated that the economy will grow within the range of 2 .0 % to 3 .0 %. For FY202 5 /2 6 , t he PIOJ’s projection is for real GDP growth within the range of 1. 0 % to 2 . 0 % . 4. Conclusion I n closing, the preliminary data presented on performance for the April to June 202 5 quarter , indicate a continued strengthening of performance following the weather - related shocks in the latter half of 2024. Most industries have already fully recovered a nd have recorded output levels , indicating that a new growth phase has been attained . T he short - term outlook for the July - September quarter reflects the expectation of the combined impact of the low - base effect as well as the current growth momentum, whi ch will result in the realization of stronger rates of growth. The main downside risks to the projection are: • The possibility of adverse weather conditions disrupting productive activities in key industries; and

12 • Weakened external demand consequent on the disruptions in trade caused by the implementation of increased tariff s by the USA Despite the challenges that abound, we remain optimistic as we continue to closely monitor and assess these developments. In clo sing, I want to acknowledge and thank the very dedicated team here at the PIOJ. I encourage us to continue our collaborative effort and to remain disciplined and responsible, as we sustain our efforts to make Jamaica, the place of choice to live, work, ra ise families and do business.